3 levels of evidence
What we check, what we refuse to publish, and how to read a date on this site.
Confirmed · There is a document from a regulator, an official gazette, or the platform itself. It is always linked.
Probable · Secondary sources only. Labelled as such.
Unverified · We could not confirm it, and we explain why. An absence of news is not evidence of absence.
In Brazil, three days after the order, both platforms were still reachable from several carriers. Execution depends on each individual ISP and can be uneven for weeks. When we know this, we say so.
Almost every block on this list is applied at the country's internet service providers, not at the platform. A connection that does not pass through a local carrier may behave differently without the block ceasing to exist. That is why we write "block ordered", not "blocked": the order is what is on record. Whether a given connection loads the site depends on its internet provider.
From the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, every 2 minutes from our own server. If a request fails we keep the last valid figure and show its timestamp. We never invent or interpolate.
An automatic matcher proposes candidate pairs by title similarity. It never publishes them. Both sets of resolution rules are then compared, with the help of AI, and the result is recorded with its date: what has to happen, by when, and which source decides. Only pairs that ask the same question appear in the comparison table. If the rules differ in any detail, such as the source each platform uses, we note it next to the pair. We also store a fingerprint of those rules and recompute it every 2 minutes: if either platform changes a single word, the pair stops being published until it is checked again.
We also publish the rejected pairs, because they teach more than the accepted ones: "what price will Bitcoin hit in 2026" and "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" look 81% alike to a string matcher and are different questions.