Who writes here
Huber Rodríguez PolaníaDirector - Founder of mercadosdeprediccion.io
I run mercadosdeprediccion.io: I decide which markets are published, which countries get verified and what text goes out. I curate everything you read here, check it against the original sources and answer for the mistakes.
I built this so that Spanish speakers can understand prediction markets before putting money into them. Almost everything serious written about this industry is in English and aimed at the United States.
How each piece is produced
I do not hide it, because it is part of why the result holds up: research and drafting are done with AI, and then everything goes through three checks before it is published.
1. Against the original source. Every claim has to come from a document you can open: the platform's own documentation, the regulator's document, or the public API. No source, no publication.
2. On the figure itself. The source is read again to confirm the number, the date and who signed it. Numbers that move, such as a fee schedule, are linked rather than copied.
3. By me. I read the finished piece with the source next to it. Anything I cannot confirm is removed.
This makes publishing slower, and sometimes it makes us write "we could not verify this". That is deliberate: a declared gap beats an invented fact.
What I sign
The guides, the articles, the country-access pages and the decision about which market pairs are published as comparable. Prices carry no byline: they come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with the timestamp of the reading shown next to them.
Corrections
Mistakes are corrected and logged with their date, in public. If you spot something wrong, send me the link: it gets checked against the original document and fixed if it is wrong.
Press and collaboration
If you write about prediction markets in Latin America or Spain and need data, country-level regulatory context or a quote, get in touch. I share what we have verified, with its source and its date, and I am explicit about what we do not know. English or Spanish.